Saturday, October 23, 2010

Favre and the Vikings Battle the Ravens to Try to Stay Undefeated

Coming off 2 heartbreaking losses, the Ravens go into Sunday's game with a big chip on their shoulder as they face the 5-0 Vikings in Minnesota. Baltimore looks to snap its losing streak by handing the Vikings its first loss of the season. 


Ravens on Offense


In the first 3 games of the season, the Raven offense was explosive, piling over 34 points a game. The play-calling was effective; there was a good balance between run and pass plays and Baltimore generally controlled the tempo. The Ravens' last 2 games have been a different tale. Their offense averaged about half as many points and their pass-to-run ratio was lopsided- 84 to 35. A lot of that has to do with Willis McGahee's role (or lack thereof); McGahee had just 6 carries in the last 2 weeks.


Despite that, he has 7 touchdowns and is a solid complement for Ray Rice, who is also very productive with 5.8 yards per run. So it's a no-brainer that the Ravens need both guys when they take on a tenacious Vikings rush defense. Joe Flacco needs to put points on the board, and to do so he'll need his receiving corps present, including Derrick Mason, who was basically nonexistent against the Bengals last week. Flacco should also look for his biggest target in Todd Heap, who can exploit the smaller Viking secondary. But this is all irrelevant if Baltimore's O-line doesn't contain the one-man wrecking crew named Jared Allen. The pressure he brings can change the game entirely. Ask Aaron Rodgers.
 
Vikings on Offense


Favre said this is the best team he's been on. Most likely, it's because he doesn't feel like he has to do too much. He has an arsenal to work with, including arguably the league's best running back in Adrian Peterson. This means Favre doesn't have to take as many chances as he's taken in the past, resulting in few mistakes (only 2 INTs). Favre will keep looking for Bernard Berrian, Sidney Rice, and Percy Harvin against the Ravens. But he has to keep a lookout for playmaker Ed Reed, who had a 52 yard run back for a TD.


Baltimore will try to catch breaks like that by keeping Favre on his feet with various blitz packages. If the Viking pass protection doesn't account for guys like Ray Lewis and Terrell Suggs, the Ravens could shake up the 40 year-old. That's where Adrian Peterson comes in. The question is, can Peterson rush for 100 yards? Last week, Cedric Benson became the first back in 39 games to record over 100 yards against the Ravens. Regardless of whether he'll go the distance or not, Peterson will definitely be a factor running the ball and receiving. The Ravens can only hope to contain him.
 
The Ravens can make it interesting if they cut down on penalties and control the pace offensively by running the ball hard. Still, Favre and co. have too much firepower for Baltimore to keep up with in a shooting match.
 
Prediction
Minnesota 34
Baltimore 24


I am currently a senior at Fordham University and studying Economics. I am helping to work on a new sports prediction website called http://superpredictors.com I write articles and provide analysis for the site. I live in New York City.

NFL Handicapping Picks - Week 1

NY GIANTS (-4) VS. Washington Redskins: The Giants kick off the 2008 NFL season and the defense of their Super Bowl title on Thursday night against a Redskins team that begins the Jim Zorn era. Zorn has installed a pass-happy scheme for Washington and QB Jason Campbell has the accuracy and strong arm to make it work. Of course this is also the third different offense he has had to learn in the last three years so expect some struggles early on as he tries to adapt. DE Jason Taylor comes over from Miami to shore up the line but he currently is listed as questionable with a knee sprain. For the Giants, the loss of DE Osi Umenyiora to season-ending ACL surgery and retirement of Michael Strahan will certainly take some bite out of the pass rush but Justin Tuck is on the verge of becoming a star and Mathias Kiwanuka has great pass rush ability so things won't fall apart in that aspect. The offense has the chance to be very good with a great corp. of RB's and solid depth at the WR position led by Plaxico Burress who looks to put his ankle issues behind him in his quest for a new pact. As far as the game goes, the Giants do qualify in a solid 28-15 ATS angle against a division foe at home but the -4 is a tad high for our liking. Both teams will be jazzed up a nationally televised kickoff so expect the best from both squads. Washington also has some angles that favor them here so it's best to stay clear of this game altogether. If the line drops to -3 then jump on the Giants with confidence but at -4 it's in that danger zone of a field goal game. One major commandment of football betting is to be extra careful with Week 1 games due to the lack of knowledge of the teams and that certainly is the case with this game. THE PICK: PASS


PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (-7.5) VS. St. Louis Rams:*******BEST BET*****


BUFFALO BILLS (-1) VS. Seattle Seahawks: The Seahawks come into the season as one of the most overrated teams in the NFL. The pass-happy 'Hawks have major issues in the receiving department as Deion Branch wont be available until possibly midseason and the leading pass catcher looks to be the very mediocre Nate Burleson who flopped in that role with Minnesota. The infusion at the RB position with Julius Jones and TJ Duckett will surely help and the defense looks great led by LB Lofa Tatupu and CB Marcus Trufant. This team however struggled on the road at times in 2007 and now they must open 2008 across the country against a Bills team that always gives a good effort. Buffalo is nothing to write home about but they have an emerging offense led by super talented RB Marshawn Lynch and very smart QB Trent Edwards. All-Pro OT Jason Peters is still holding out as we write this which could hurt but the rest of the unit is solid enough to get the job done. The defense also looks to be good as DE Matt Schobel leads a good pass rushing unit with some emerging players in the secondary. They certainly stand a good chance of beating the Seahawks here as a major betting no-no is going with West Coast teams in Week 1 on the road in the East. That's the setup here and the value clearly rests on the Bills who won't be getting much love as many bettors will take the points with the seemingly better team. Value is where you make your money and the home team has it and then some. THE PICK: Buffalo Bills (-1)


New York Jets (-3) VS. MIAMI DOLPHINS:*****STRONG OPINION***


NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (-16) VS. Kansas City Chiefs:******STRONG OPINION***


Detroit Lions (-3) VS. ATLANTA FALCONS: This is truly the worst game on the slate for Week 1 and is one that looks to be unwatchable. The Falcons will start the Matt Ryan era right off the bat against a Lions team whose defense can't stop a retirement home team. Ryan will surely lean on the running of new RB Michael Turner and the pass catching of emerging star Roddy White. The offense line is a joke however and it wouldn't be surprising to me so se Ryan challenge David Carr's record for most sacks taken. For Detroit, they continue to wallow in mediocrity but they continue to add pieces to the offense in rookie RB Kevin Smith who looked good in preseason and second-year wideout Calvin Johnson who will be a star very soon. The Lions being the Lions however, they then go out and sign a washed up Rudi Johnson late of the Bengals and continue to give the ball to mistake-prone QB Jon Kitna. So expect nothing but struggles for both teams all year. This game is one to stay away from for sure and I would rather watch women's tennis than sit through this. THE PICK: PASS


NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (-3.5) VS. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: The Saints went into the off-season hell-bent on improving a defense that let them down way too often last year. The offense could be the best in the NFL however led by the steady hand of QB Drew Brees and an explosive receiving trio of RB Reggie Bush, WR Marques Colston, and TE Jeremy Shockey. If the defense can be even average, then New Orleans could be sitting on a huge season. For the Buc's, Jon Gruden has successfully changed the look of his team on the fly as new young additions to the defense have reestablished the tradition of a hard hitting stop unit. MLB Barrett Rudd and DE Gaines Adams are on the cusp of stardom and they form the perfect blend with still effective vets LB Derrick Brooks and CB Ronde Barber. The offense is once again led by QB Jeff Garcia after failing to acquire Brett Favre and the Earnest Graham looks to build off a breakout year in the running attack. This is a classic match up of great defense versus great offense and should be fun to watch. The Saints struggled against Tampa last season and it wouldn't be a shock to see Gruden's bunch steal one on the road. Either way this looks to be tight contest between two bitter division rivals. The extra half point makes Tampa Bay an attractive pick. THE PICK: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3.5)


Cincinnati Bengals (-1.5) VS. BALTIMORE RAVENS: The Joe Flacco era begins in Baltimore as both Kyle Boller (injury) and Troy Smith (illness) couldn't answer the bell. Flacco played well in preseason at times and has shown the tools that made Baltimore salivate over his selection in the draft. Count on a heavy dose of RB Willis McGahee as the Ravens try to ease the transition for their franchise QB. On defense is where this team's strength lies as usual as Ray Lewis and company look to clamp down on opposing offenses as they have done so well over the years. They will look to do just that against a solid on paper Bengals offense. led by QB Carson Palmer. Palmer certainly has lots of weapons to throw to as Chad Johnson and TJ Houshmandzadeh form possibly the best wideout combination in the NFL. As far as the running game is concerned, Chris Perry gets his chance after Rudi Johnson was cut and there is no telling whether he can hold up over the course of the season as injuries have been a problem. This is a very tough game to call as the Bengals struggled tremendously on the road last season but with Flacco starting for Baltimore, things could take awhile for them to get going. One trend that does stick out is that the Ravens qualify in a 33-19-1 ATS home underdog season opening angle so based on that aspect, we will go with the home team to stay competitive. THE PICK: Baltimore Ravens (+1.5)


Jacksonville Jaguars (-3) VS. TENNESSEE TITANS: These teams played a crazy series last season as each won on the other's home turf. Both teams also had successful 2007 seasons as each qualified for the postseason, with the Jags winning a game in Pittsburgh. Expectations are certainly high as we go into 2008 so this will be a barometer game for both squads. Jacksonville needs contributions from a so-so receiving unit in order to take that next step and the Titans needs QB Vince Young to learn to be a better passer for them to progress. This game figures to be a defensive contest as both units can lockdown any offense so the UNDER is worth a look. The Titans are also in the better betting position as a home underdog at home against a division foe which has gone 33-19-1 ATS. Just like the Cincy-Baltimore game, we will take the points and back that solid trend. THE PICK: Tennessee Titans (+3)


PITTSBURGH STEELERS (-6.5) VS. Houston Texans:*******BEST BET******


SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (-9) VS. Carolina Panthers: Another interesting game here as the Chargers have the look of a team destined to make the Super Bowl and the Panthers look to make a run of their own now that QB Jake Delhomme is back. The Chargers have stars all over the field at almost every position and 14-2 is not out of the question. The offensive is explosive with RB LaDainian Tomlinson, TE Antonio Gates, and WR's Chris Chambers and Vincent Jackson. The defense is just as good with All-Pro LB Shawne Merriman, DE Luis Castillo, DT Jamaal Williams, and CB Antonio Cromartie. Carolina on the other hand more of a blue collar look to them but don't take this team lightly. Delhomme is a Super Bowl runner up so he has proven he can win games and take his team deep into the postseason. Also rookie RB Jonathan Stewart is the perfect fit in coach John Fox's run heavy offense. The problem is that WR Steve Smith is suspended for the first two weeks of the season due to sucker-punching teammates Ken Lucas in practice. Without Smith the offense looks almost punch less, at least from a passing standpoint. It's almost too easy to say the Chargers will cover this one easily but based on the matchups, you can't argue against it. The only problem is that Carolina historically is a great bet as an underdog under Fox (31-16-2 ATS, with Delhomme at QB its 19-4-1 ATS). Those are some serious trends to look over when going with San Diego as the Chargers are great at home as evidenced by them having a 22-6-1 ATS when not favored by more than 11. So based on last trend and the fact Smith is out, leans us toward the home squad. THE PICK: San Diego Chargers (-9)


Dallas Cowboys (-5.5) VS. CLEVELAND BROWNS:******STRONG OPINION*****


Arizona Cardinals (-2.5) VS. SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS: Certainly no one will be paying much attention to this one as both teams figure to struggle. The 49ers are in worse shape than the Cardinals however as its been determined that journeyman QB JT O'Sullivan gives them their best chance to win. Unreal. The Cardinals had their own QB issues as Kurt Warner beat out Matt Leinart in preseason. That's actually good news for Arizona as Warner had a great year last year and has much more ability to run the offense. WR's Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald should both have huge years with Warner at the helm and if RB Edgerrin James can give them one more good year, then this unit will be a major force. The defense needs work however but they do have some nice pieces in S Adrian Wilson and DE Bertrand Berry. They certainly wont have to work hard against a terrible 49ers offense that has only RB Frank Gore to scare people. Mike Martz comes over from Detroit to shore up the unit but there is no talent to work with. Hate going with Arizona on the road as they certainly have a long track record of letting down to the opponent but no way we back the 'Niners in any situation. THE PICK: Arizona Cardinals (-2.5)


INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (-9.5) VS. Chicago Bears: Colts QB Peyton Manning looks like he will play after having an abscess removed during the preseason. He will once again lead an offense that is one of the NFL's best and is expertly run. Manning will have four great options to throw to in star WR Reggie Wayne, TE Dallas Clark, emerging WR Anthony Gonzalez, and the returning from injury WR Marvin Harrison. Harrison's return is huge in that the offense will be much tougher to contain with him on the field. Throw in the great running of Joseph Addai and the Colts are one of the bets units out there on offense. The defense on the other hand struggled toward the end of last season due to injuries but star DE Dwight Freeney is back and S Bob Sanders looks like he is ready to go. When all hands are on deck, this is a very tough defense to score points on. The Bears certainly are no strangers when it comes to struggling to score points. Kyle Orton is in QB and rookie RB Matt Forte will run the ball. Not very scary. The defense is decent as there are big names up and down the roster but this is the same group that struggled badly toward the end of 2007. The Colts will be able to score no matter who they play and the Bears just don't have the ability to hang tight. If Manning doesn't play however then we pass. THE PICK Indianapolis Colts (-9.5)


GREEN BAY PACKERS (-2.5) VS. Minnesota Vikings: The Aaron Rogers era begins on Monday night at home against division rival Minnesota. The whole Brett Favre drama was certainly a major distraction for the Pack but they have said all along that Rogers is their guy and he looked all right in preseason. For Minnesota, QB Tarvaris Jackson is the key to the whole team's fortunes as every other unit looks outstanding. If Jackson can be even somewhat decent, then the Vikings could be Super Bowl-bound. The defensive line looks to be one of the best units ever assembled with incoming star DE Jared Allen joining stud DT's Kevin and Pat Williams to make life miserable for opposing passers. That will spell big trouble for Rogers who really couldn't have drawn a worse assignment from a pass rushing sense. RB Adrian Peterson is looking to build on a ridiculously awesome rookie year and so Green Bay must be ready on D to make sure this game doesn't get away from them early. This is a very tough game to call as it could go either way. There is way to much uncertainty here so it would be best to stay away as there are no trends pointing firmly toward either squad.. THE PICK: PASS


Denver Broncos (-3) VS. OAKLAND RAIDERS: There is nothing that Mike Shannahan loves more than to beat up the Oakland Raiders. Ever since he was unceremoniously fired by Al Davis as coach many eons ago, Shanahan has made it a point to stick it to his former boss whenever he can. The opportunity is there again as the Raiders are very young and raw on offense with QB JaMarcus Russell and RB Darren McFadden. The wideout corps is weak and there surely will be struggles for Russell early on. The defense needs a comeback from DE Derrick Burgess in order to be able to stay in games. The Broncos on the other hand have an emerging talent in QB Jay Cutler who has successfully dealt with the diabetes that plagued him last year. Cutler has a cannon of an arm and will be looking to air it out. The running game will also churn along as always with Selvin Young being the guy to pick up the workload. Oakland could certainly make strides this season but they have to go through some growing pains before they can take that step. Denver is the safe choice in this game. THE PICK: Denver Broncos (-3)


Co-founder of http://www.yourwinningpicks.com/ in our tenth year of supplying sports handicapping and fantasy sports information.

Friday, October 22, 2010

Ravens Offence at a Glance

Ray Rice stunned us all with his 1339 rushing in the season, in addition to his 702 receiving yards. He averaged a full 9 yards per catch. Rice is still very young and hasn't even hit his prime.


Joe Flacco came off a great 09' season and now with Anquan Boldin in the mix it should help Ray in the rushing game. Ed Dickson was the Ravens 3rd pick out of Oregon, with a 40 yard dash time of 4.67 seconds he has the speed to take some of Rice's receptions. Ed Dickson gives the effort as a blocker but does not have the size and bulk to be a top rush blocker. Todd Heap is not the elite wide receiver he used to be, going into his 10th year he starting not to burst off the line as he used to be. In 09' he total 595 line of scrimmage yards with 6 touchdowns. Derrick Mason is looking for his 4th consecutive season with 1000 receiving yards.


The Ravens could have a great year if they stay away from injuries. The Ravens have a top 10 offence and a top 5 running-back.


Fantasy
Top 5 Ravens Fantasy Picks


1. Ray Rice, I think Ray Rice is underrated as of being 4th on most cheat sheets. MJD is fighting injuries and AP has lost most of his flare. I feel Ray Rice is the top 2 running back as far as fantasy goes.


2. Derrick Mason, I know your thinking what is he doing putting Mason over Flacco. I've had mason almost every year for my league and he has never fail me in the weeks I needed him. He is a very solid late round pickup.


3. Joe Flacco, Joe has Anquan Boldin and Derrick Mason to pass to, Joe is a very solid 5th-6th pick.


4. Anquan Boldin, If he stays away from injuries he will have a 80+ receptions this year.


5. Todd Heap, The tight end position is so deep this year you can really just pick one up in free agency and be alright. Todd Heap had 53 receptions last year with an avg. of 11.2 yards per catch. Heap could be a amazing very late round pick.


I would Drop: Willis McGahee, most of the carries are going to Rice McGahee is nothing more than a 3rd down back. I feel he is a waste of a bench spot on a fantasy team. Hint: Willis is a popular person to the average fan you may be able to trade him for someone with potential.


Go to http://profootballnow.webstarts.com/ for more fantasy football facts and news.

Thursday, October 21, 2010

The Top QB-RB-WR Combos in the NFL For 2010

From Unitas-Ameche-Berry in the late 1950's and early 1960's to Bradshaw-Harris-Swann in the 1970's to Montana-Craig-Rice in the 1980's to Aikman-Smith-Irvin in the 1990's to Manning-James-Harrison in the 2000's, there has been a history of feared QB-RB-WR combos fueling gridiron success in the NFL. In today's NFL, with more wide-open offenses and running backs by committee, having a formidable set of "triplets" has become less integral but no less effective. Here is my list of the top QB-RB-WR combos in the league:


5. Atlanta Falcons (Matt Ryan, Michael Turner, Roddy White) - The fact that the Falcons made this list speaks volumes about my belief that Matt Ryan will bounce back from an up-and-down campaign in 2009. I believe this kid has elite QB written all over him and will begin proving it in 2010. I also expect to see Michael Turner more resemble the runner we saw in 2008 than the injury-plagued back we saw last season. While Ryan and Turner suffered through disappointing seasons in 2009, Roddy White continued to emerge as one of the league's top wide receivers with 85 catches and a career best 11 touchdowns. Look for the Falcons offense to light it up in 2010.


4. Minnesota Vikings (Brett Favre, Adrian Peterson, Sidney Rice) - Obviously, this ranking depends a lot on Brett Favre's decision on whether to play or not in 2010. Let's just say, I have sneaky suspicion he'll show up sometime in August after the rigors of training camp are but a memory for his teammates. After doubting Favre's ability to defy age the past couple of seasons, I can find no reason to expect a sharp decline in his play this season. Despite a rather pedestrian end to his season - for my money - Adrian Peterson is still the best running back in the NFL. Vikings fans had been waiting on Sidney Rice to finally live up to some of his vast potential since being taken in the 2nd round in 2007. Well, they finally got what they were looking for as he blossomed with Favre as his quarterback - resulting in Pro Bowl season in 2009.


3. Dallas Cowboys (Tony Romo, Marion Barber, Miles Austin) - Miles Austin came out of nowhere last season to team with Romo and Barber to bring back memories of the original Cowboy Triplets (Aikman, Smith and Irvin). The Boys ranked #2 in the NFL in total yards last season and should once again have no problem moving the ball in 2010.


2. Indianapolis Colts (Peyton Manning, Joseph Addai, Reggie Wayne) - The Colts have found themselves towards the top of this list each year since Edgerrin James teamed up with Peyton Manning and Marvin Harrison back in 1999. Eleven years later, a couple of the names have changed but the results have been the same. Joseph Addai took over for James in 2006 and Reggie Wayne moved out from under Marvin Harrison's shadow completely in 2009 as they, along with Manning, helped lead the Colts to a Super Bowl appearance last season.


1. Baltimore Ravens (Joe Flacco, Ray Rice, Anquan Boldin) - I know this combo is unproven as a unit with Boldin yet to play a down for the Ravens, but I love the potential of these three in the 2010 NFL season. Flacco built on an impressive Rookie campaign in 2008 by passing for over 3600 yards and 21 touchdowns in 2009. Ray Rice, also in his 2nd season last year, had over 2000 yards from scrimmage. If Boldin can quickly develop chemistry with Flacco, look for this group to put up some very impressive totals this season.


A. K. Leonard writes a Fantasy Sports Blog at http://www.h2hfantasysports.com with the latest in Head to Head Fantasy Sports news, tips, advice and recommendations.

Wednesday, October 20, 2010

Ranking The NFL Quarterbacks

With the NFL season quickly approaching, I figured it would be a good time to break down and compare the top 32 starting quarterbacks in the league. And what better way to do so than through a list.


Now just for clarification, I'm ranking the starting quarterbacks of each team with a few exceptions. I will still include injured players like Josh Freeman and Donovan McNabb despite the fact that both might not be able to play in Week 1. Sam Bradford will also be on this list because we all know that, at very least, he will be the starter at some point this year.


So here we go:


#32: Matt Leinart/Derek Anderson - Arizona Cardinals: While we await the Cardinals' decision of who will be the starting quarterback come week 1, in my opinion, it doesn't really matter. Matt Leinart plays in slow motion while Derek Anderson is about as erratic as it gets at the quarterback position. Whoever ends up under center for this team is a massive drop off from Kurt Warner and deserves to be ranked 32nd out of the 32 starting quarterbacks.


#31: Alex Smith - San Francisco 49ers: The former number one overall pick has dealt with a lot during his time in San Fran - injuries, demotions, several offensive coordinators, and a severe lack of talent in his own body. While he does make the occasional great throw, it isn't enough for me to put him in the top 30. CAN'T DO IT!!!


#30: Matt Moore - Carolina Panthers: The Panthers appear to be biding their time with Matt Moore until they feel comfortable playing Jimmy Clausen. They wouldn't have drafted Clausen with their first pick (even though it was in the middle of the second round) if they weren't planning on giving Clausen the keys to the car as soon as he's ready to drive. Moore doesn't really stand out in any way. He's got okay arm strength, okay accuracy, okay coverage recognition skills etc...But he isn't the Panthers' long-term solution at quarterback. Clausen is.


#29: Trent Edwards - Buffalo Bills: Trent Edwards hasn't been the model of consistency so far in his NFL career. However, he does have some positive traits. Namely, he has a compact delivery and throws a nice long ball (he throws it high so it drops into the receiver's hands at an angle that is very tough for the DB to get to). However, he doesn't seem to have the ability to find the open receiver if his primary read is covered. You can just see it when you watch him on Sundays. If he isn't ready to throw the ball at the top of his drop and there is any indecision, he starts to panic (the top of a QB's drop is when the primary read receiver should be coming out of his break). This ultimately gets him in trouble on way too many occasions.


#28: Josh Freeman - Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Josh Freeman shows a lot of potential as a young QB. He has a relatively strong arm, and surprisingly, he has some ability to make plays outside the pocket when the play breaks down. But similar to many young quarterbacks, his coverage recognition and decision-making both need to be faster. If he can improve this part of his game significantly in 2010, you could find him cracking the top 20 quarterbacks by the end of this season.


#27: Kevin Kolb - Philadelphia Eagles: Kolb has some big shoes to fill this year. He isn't the most physically talented QB in the league, but last season he showed glimpses of being able to function at a very high level within the framework of an offense that has tons of weapons. This isn't as easy as it sounds. There is a certain level of timing you need to have as a quarterback, even when you are surrounded by a ton of talent. Last year, Kolb showed that he has that type of timing to his game. Now he just needs to put a shaky preseason behind him.


#26: Jake Delhomme - Cleveland Browns: If not for his erratic play, Delhomme might be higher on this list. He does actually have talent and he's shown the ability to make some great throws into small windows throughout the course of his career. There is a lot of Brett Favre in his game. The bad part is, he's like the Brett Favre with all of the bonehead throws and only a fifth of the great throws. John Madden is extremely upset that I just mentioned Delhomme and Favre in the same sentence.


#25: Sam Bradford - St. Louis Rams: If you're a Rams fan, you have to be happy with what Bradford showed this past week against the Patriots. He looked extremely calm in the pocket, which is impressive considering how bad his O-line has been. His accuracy stood out and his arm looked surprisingly strong.


#24: Matt Cassel - Kansas City Chiefs: Expect Cassel to be passed by Bradford as the year progresses. Cassel is the epitome of a system quarterback. He needs a lot of talent around him because his overall quarterbacking skills are just good and not great. Isn't it funny to look back to the 2008 season when many fans and Boston media-types where trying to argue that the Patriots should trade Brady in the off-season and sign Cassel to a long-term deal. Haha, classic.


#23: Mark Sanchez - New York Jets: Jets fans everywhere are outraged! They are screaming at their computers right now and cursing my name for putting Mark Sanchez so low. But what can I say? Despite whatever potential Sanchez may or may not have, right now he is not a good NFL quarterback. This doesn't mean he won't be a good quarterback in the future. But let's face it, it's not like he has a cannon. It's not like he dazzles us with his accuracy, coverage recognition, or poise on a week-in week-out basis. He's got a lot of work to do. The good news is that it can't get any worse for Sanchez than it has been this preseason.


#22: David Garrard - Jacksonville Jaguars: Garrard continues to play at a relatively high level for the Jaguars. He has been a rock for this organization for the last few years. To be quite honest with you, Garrard throws a really nice ball and is very accurate. His big issue is that he is late with a lot of his throws, and therefore, the timing between he and his receivers is off on too many plays. Better coverage recognition and anticipation skills could have Garrard playing at a much higher level.


#21: Kyle Orton - Denver Broncos: Orton is physically limited as a passer. However, he is still a steady quarterback. He won't make a ton of mistakes and he'll work within the design of the offense, but he can tend to be a little slow getting rid of the ball at times. In the end, Orton is a steady field general who won't lose many games for your team. The problem is he won't win many games for your team either.


#20: Jason Campbell - Oakland Raiders: Campbell does have a strong arm, and when things are clicking around him, he has the ability to make a defense pay. However, the inconsistencies in his game are not just related to the players and offensive coordinators he's had around him. They are more related to his problems locking onto receivers and taking too long to get rid of the ball. A quicker tempo to his game might bump him up a few notches on this list.


#19: Matt Hasselbeck - Seattle Seahawks: When he's playing well, Hasselbeck is fun to watch. He's accurate, he'll throw the ball from all angles, and he does anything and everything he can to manipulate the defense. Arm strength has really been the only thing missing from his repertoire throughout his career. However, a weak arm is a problem for a quarterback. It leaves less margin for error. More things around you have to go perfectly for you to be effective. I agree with the belief that you don't need a great arm to be a great quarterback. But you better be damn good at everything else to make up for what you lack in arm strength. Hasselbeck is good at everything else, but he isn't THAT good.


#18: Vince Young - Tennessee Titans: A lot of people out there probably think there is no way 17 quarterbacks in the NFL are better than Vince Young. But those people are probably lending more weight to Young's running skills and his performance against USC in the National Championship game than they are to his pocket passing skills. Always remember, the most important thing for a quarterback is his ability to throw the ball from the pocket. Why do so many analysts and experts look at a player's running ability to determine whether he's a good quarterback? Generally, if you can't throw the ball, you're going to have problems playing the position; problems that running around the field in circles won't solve. I will say that Young has improved his ability to throw the ball from the pocket in the last year or so. But in the end, he still needs to get A LOT better at playing the position the right way - the consistent way. Mobility outside of the pocket can give you an edge over other mediocre passers, but it won't get you into the upper echelon of the NFL quarterback ranks.


#17: Chad Henne - Miami Dolphins: If you've watched Henne this preseason, you've seen how comfortable he looks hanging in the pocket and finding the open receiver. His anticipation skills are solid and he has enough arm strength to make all of the necessary throws. He'll have some ups and downs this year as all young quarterbacks do, but ultimately, this guy has the tools to be a very good QB and a rock for the Dolphins Organization for the next ten years.


#16: Matt Ryan - Atlanta Falcons: Ryan is the type of quarterback who does everything the right way. He has good pocket presence, he's accurate, and he knows where to go with the ball for the most part. Last year, we saw a bit of a regression for Ryan. He battled injuries, and Atlanta's running game was nowhere near as effective as it was in 2008. Yet with two seasons of experience and learning now under his belt, expect Ryan to look a little bit more like a seasoned vet in 2010.


#15: Joe Flacco - Baltimore Ravens: The general consensus on Joe Flacco is that he had a down sophomore year after a great rookie season. I disagree entirely with this sentiment. If you remember, Flacco had some good moments his rookie season, but by and large, he rode the coattails of the rest of his team. Last year, he not only showed signs of being able to manage an offense, but he also showed that he has the ability to create a ton of big plays. He's tall, calm in the pocket, has a great arm, and throws the ball to the outside as well as any quarterback in the league. With the addition of Anquan Boldin to the receiving corps this season, I expect Flacco to have a big year.


#14: Matt Schaub - Houston Texans: Schaub is not a physically talented passer, but he's accurate and a good anticipator. He reads coverage well, and seems to know where to go with the ball. Yes he does have a huge, enormous, gigantic, non-human, and totally unfair weapon in Andre Johnson, but Schaub's 4,770 passing yards last season are tough to argue with.


#13: Matthew Stafford - Detroit Lions: I know, Stafford threw a lot of picks last season, and he's young, and he's raw. So what. This guy has immense talent. He can make throws that only one or two other QB's in the league can make. And if you've been watching him this preseason, it's clear he has taken a big growth step from his rookie year. He looks so calm, comfortable, and in control. A lot of QB's have talent. The best ones mix talent with hard work and the ability to play the game intelligently. I strongly believe Stafford is on his way to becoming the type of QB who puts it all together. It took every ounce of strength in my body to refrain from putting this guy in the top ten. By season's end, I'm confident he will be there.


#12: Tony Romo - Dallas Cowboys: Romo has shown prolonged moments of brilliance, as well as the tendency to crumble against good defenses. He is an accurate passer who gets rid of the ball quickly. He has the ability to keep plays alive and find open receivers after the play has broken down (this is different than being a running QB). His biggest problem, though, is the blitz. He can't seem to stay in the pocket against pressure. This leads to some big plays here and there when he gets to the outside, but it also leads to some bad plays and a lack of consistency. If Romo wants to make the leap to being a great quarterback and not just a good one, he'll need to be firmer in the pocket against pressure.


#11: Eli Manning - New York Giants: You could make the argument that Romo and Eli are interchangeable. But I like Eli's consistency better. He knows where to go with the ball, even against the blitz. Ultimately, Eli and Romo are similar in overall ability despite having different playing styles. I just feel that with Eli, you know what you're going to get. And you can always count on him to be prepared for whatever defense he faces.


#10: Donovan McNabb - Washington Redskins: A new uniform shouldn't change too much about McNabb's game. This is his 12th year in the league. At this point, he is who he is, in terms of both the good and the bad. McNabb has as strong of an arm as any QB in the league. We're talking an absolute cannon. And occasionally he breaks out a throw that no other player in the league can make. But McNabb's biggest problem is that after he makes that phenomenal throw, he'll fire the ball at the running back's feet in the flat on the very next play. McNabb's inconsistencies are heavily rooted in his poor and undisciplined throwing mechanics. But his talent is too good to keep him out of the top 10.


#9: Carson Palmer - Cincinnati Bengals: I love watching Palmer play. The man is tough. Not to mention he's pretty damn good. He's got a strong arm, accuracy, knows what he's doing, and gets rid of the ball on time. Watch closely the next time you see him on TV. He'll get to the top of his drop and fire the ball twenty yards downfield to his receiver in stride several times a game. He really is one of the best in football at playing with timing and rhythm. And this season, he'll have a ton of talent around him on both sides of the ball. Could this be the year the Bengals win a Super Bowl?


#8: Ben Roethlisberger - Pittsburgh Steelers: Say what you want to about Ben Roethlesomething for his off the field issues. He can fire that pigskin. He also might be the toughest quarterback in the league to actually bring to the ground. How many times have we seen him shed multiple 300-pound defenders and then throw an absolute rope thirty yards downfield to a tightly covered receiver and still manage to fit the ball in there? The answer, my friend, is a lot. Yet what many don't realize about Roethlisberger is that when he plays from inside the pocket, he is at his absolute best. His run-around plays make for great highlights, but they don't translate to consistent quarterbacking. For every one great play he has outside of the pocket, he has about 10 incompletions/interceptions/sacks from fleeing the pocket too early and making it up as he goes along. If he was better at playing within the framework of the offense - basically throwing the ball where it's designed to go - with his physical skills, he would be an elite quarterback without question.


#7: Jay Cutler - Chicago Bears: Yes, I have Jay Cutler ahead of Roethlisberger. Their accuracy is comparable, but Cutler has a bit of an edge in arm strength. And maybe I sound like a broken record, but Cutler plays better from inside the pocket. And if you really want to bring it up, he's also quicker, faster, and more athletic than Roethlisberger. He just chooses not to run as much. The thing that Cutler doesn't get enough credit for, though, is his toughness in the face of pressure. He delivers the ball downfield with defenders in his face as well as anyone in the league. He's extremely firm in the pocket. Cutler is at his worst when he makes stupid decisions and throws the ball to well-covered receivers because he thinks he can complete any pass at any time. Yes he is inconsistent. But his inconsistencies stem from correctable things. There is nothing wrong with him mechanically or coverage recognition-wise, and he's as tough as they come at the position. He just needs to scale it back with the stupid throws - something Brett Favre also had to do as a young'un. I believe a no-nonsense Offensive Coordinator like Mike Martz will help Cutler improve this area of his game dramatically.


#6: Philip Rivers - San Diego Chargers: Rivers may have the ugliest throwing motion since Bernie Kosar, but he's accurate, has a strong arm, and does just about everything right when it comes to quarterbacking. He also might throw the best long ball in the game. As I stated in part one of this three day series, to throw a good long-ball you need to throw it high so it drops into the receiver's hands at an angle that is too tough for the defensive back to get to. Rivers does this extremely well. And he can throw it a mile. Don't be fooled by his Kenny Powers throwing motion.


#5: Brett Favre - Minnesota Vikings: Did anyone catch Favre last week against the Seahawks? Did you see some of the throws he made? At age 40, he's still slinging it as well as any other QB in the league. While it's hard to deny that Brett Favre is fun to watch, I wish he'd get more credit for the fact that he does all of the little things right. He has uncanny anticipation skills. He has phenomenal vision and coverage recognition skills. When he throws interceptions, it's rarely because he's fooled, and more so because he trusts his arm too much. His accuracy is also underrated and overshadowed by all of the other flashy things he does. Favre has had an amazing career, obviously. He should go down as easily one of the top five quarterbacks of all time.


#4: Aaron Rodgers - Green Bay Packers: Elite. The only word you need to know to describe Aaron Rodgers. Skill-wise, he has surpassed the 40-year old version of Brett Favre. He can throw the ball a mile. He can make every single type of throw. And his ability to see the field and recognize defenses has grown exponentially since his first start in 2008. Rodgers is the number one reason why the Packers look like the class of the NFC at the moment.


#3: Drew Brees - New Orleans Saints: Drew Brees is an elite quarterback, but not because he finally won a Super Bowl. Nobody is an elite QB solely for winning a title - otherwise Trent Dilfer, Brad Johnson, Mark Rypien, Jeff Hostetler, and so on would have to be classified as such. Brees is elite because he's amazingly accurate and does everything right. He also is such a good anticipator that he completely negates having a poor pass-protecting offensive line. He gets rid of the ball so quickly that the opposing pass rush rarely has time to take advantage of his blockers up front.


#2: Tom Brady - New England Patriots: Brady had a down year in 2009 after coming back from his knee injury. He sported a 96.2 QB rating and threw for 4,398 yards, 28 TD's, and only 13 INT's...Yeah, Brady was terrible. But don't worry Pats fans. This preseason, Brady looks like he's back to his old self (I mean the 2007 version, not the 2009 version that is still better than about 98 percent of all quarterbacks). Brady has one of the strongest arms in the league (a huge improvement from his first few years), pinpoint accuracy, great anticipation, the ability to make any type of throw, and the ability to read coverage quickly. He also has the calmest feet in the pocket of any QB in the league. So get excited, Boston sports fans. You won't have to whine and moan about your hapless Red Sox anymore once the NFL season starts, because Tom Brady is going to have a monster year.


#1: Peyton Manning - Indianapolis Colts: Think of a quarterback skill, any quarterback skill. Chances are, Peyton Manning has it. He can do it all. He can make every possible throw and he can do it against any defense, anywhere, any time. But what sets Manning apart isn't his accuracy, his statistics, or his control of the offense at the line of scrimmage - although those things do set him apart. What separates Manning from the rest is how fast he processes information, how fast he recognizes coverage, and then how quickly he reacts. Don't be fooled by anyone who tells you Manning isn't the top dog because he doesn't have enough rings. Peyton is far and away the best QB in the NFL right now. He might just be the best of all time too.


For more sports news and analysis visit http://www.BigSportsBalls.com

Tuesday, October 19, 2010

2009 Baltimore Ravens Fantasy Football Preview


Joe Flacco and the 2008 Baltimore Ravens came out of nowhere finishing 11-5 and winning 2 playoff games before finally succumbing 23-14 to the Pittsburg Steelers in the AFC Championship Game. Nobody and I mean nobody could have predicted Flacco's success as he clearly demonstrated that he has the mo-jo and leadership qualities necessary to be a success in the NFL. However, historically the Ravens have not been known to produce many fantasy studs and that was no different last year as with the exception of WR Derek Mason and RB LeRon McClain no Raven invoked fears amongst fantasy owners.

Flacco was a nice surprise in 2008 but that doesn't make him any more attractive in 2009 as a fantasy starter. It is not so much Flacco but the system that he plays in and the receivers that he has at his disposal that makes him fall well short of a number one fantasy option at QB. Furthermore, teams will not be surprised by Flacco much in the same way that they will not be surprised with Atlanta QB Matt Ryan. Both had exceptional rookie campaigns but this is the NFL and teams always make adjustments and this will no doubt be the case regarding both Flacco and Ryan. Pure and simple Flacco just doesn't have many weapons to work with and that hurts his fantasy stock dramatically. Until the Ravens get Flacco some legitimate targets to replace the rag tag guys currently on the roster at the WR position don't look for him to produce quality stats and certainly don't look at him as a starting fantasy QB.

McClain was a nice surprise last year and he no doubt helped some owners to titles with his play down the stretch run. The problem is that all reports coming out of Baltimore indicate that McClain is going to be relegated to FB behind Willis McGahee and Ray Rice. McGahee, while only 27 has had numerous major injuries and is extremely weathered. Furthermore, he seems to think that he is better than he actually is with his attitude. Heads up Willis, you are an average NFL RB at best. McGahee rushed for 671 yards and 7 TD's in 2009 falling well short of what owners who drafted him expected. Don't look for much more out of McGahee this year as McClain in my estimation will still see the majority of goal line reps and Rice will cut into his attempts between the 20's. McGahee will go higher in drafts but I believe that Rice will be the more productive fantasy back this year for Baltimore. Treat McGahee as a number 4 rusher similarly to Cleveland's Jamal Lewis only to be used in desperate situations. Keep on eye on both McClain and Rice in drafts and if you can secure the services of either with a pick around the 9th-10th round snag either of them.

Every year people treat Mason as a fantasy piece of trash yet year in and year out proves without a shadow of a doubt that he is the number one receiving option for Baltimore. 2008 saw Mason catch 80 passes for 1037 yards and 5 TD's and he was CLEARLY Flacco's security blanket all year long. Don't look for anything to change in '09 as the Ravens have virtually the same receiving corps in tact despite flirting with the Cardinals Anquan Boldin during the off season. That being said Mason still represents at very best a number 4 option for fantasy owners this year. Mark Clayton has been a major disappointment pretty much since day one and is worth nothing more than a late round flier in most formats. TE Todd Heap is injury prone and may be surpassed on the depth chart by Quinn Sypniewski who has shown a lot of promise in his 4 years in the league. Treat Sypniewski as a nice sleeper possibility and avoid Heap based on his past injury problems.

Although ageing the Ravens DST still remains one of the NFL's best and a worthy number one fantasy unit. However, the team lost a lot of its luster this off season as Defensive Coordinator Rex Ryan left to take the Head Coaching position with the NY Jets and took defensive stalwarts Bart Scott and Jim Leonhard with him. The loss of Ryan will surely have an impact on the Ravens and it will be seen whether the team can continue on without him. LB Ray Lewis still anchors this fine unit but if you draft them don't expect the same kind of dominance you saw from them unit during the early to mid 2000's. The Ravens are in transition at kicker with veteran Matt Stover no longer with the organization. Rookie Graham Gotto and and Steve Hauschka will battle for the starting position come training camp in July. Whoever wins that battle you are far better off looking at other options at kicker for 2009.

On paper no player on the Ravens roster is starting fantasy material heading into '09 with the exception of the DST and even then keep your expectations to a minimum as the unit is aging and also minus its leader Ryan. Well, that concludes my examination of the AFC North in terms of fantasy potential for 2009. Next, I will focus on the AFC West and I will start with none other than my Oakland Raiders.








Chris Limburg is the fantatical purveyor of OaklandRaidersCentral.com: A Oakland Raiders/Fantasy Football blog that provides commentary on everything that is the NFL. Sign up for my free newsletter at [http://www.oaklandraiderscentral.com] and receive my fantasy football e-course that will prepare you for your draft and enable you to dominate your league in 2009.


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